Why the current pullback is a buying window, not a warning sign
Based on Carson Investment Research analysis (03/30/2026)
As shared by FOMO研究院 (@fomo_soc) • Prepared April 2026
Every real bear market in 75 years hit -5% in under 25 trading days. This one took 35.
| Bull Peak | Bear Low | S&P Change | Days to -5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1956 | Oct 1957 | -21.6% | 20 |
| Dec 1961 | Jun 1962 | -28.0% | 19 |
| Feb 1966 | Oct 1966 | -22.2% | 14 |
| Nov 1968 | May 1970 | -36.1% | 24 |
| Jan 1973 | Oct 1974 | -48.2% | 18 |
| Nov 1980 | Aug 1982 | -27.1% | 6 |
| Aug 1987 | Dec 1987 | -33.5% | 8 |
| Mar 2000 | Oct 2002 | -49.1% | 14 |
| Oct 2007 | Mar 2009 | -56.8% | 21 |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | -33.9% | 4 |
| Jan 2022 | Oct 2022 | -25.4% | 11 |
| Average / Median | -34.7% / -33.5% | 14.5 / 14 | |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Mar 30, 2026* | -9.1% | 35 |
Source: Carson Investment Research, YCharts 03/30/2026, @ryandetrick. *Current pullback has not become a bear market.
Carson Investment Research's analysis, backed by 75 years of data
S&P 500 forward EPS grew +6.7% YTD — more than half came after the Middle East conflict escalated. Profit margins hit 15.0% ATH, up from 12.0% in 2019. Companies aren't just surviving high costs — they're generating record profits through them.
This bull market crossed the 3-year mark. Of 8 bull markets that lasted 3+ years, 7 reached year 4+. Over the past 50 years, every single 3-year bull eventually lasted at least 5. Like an ocean liner at full speed — almost impossible to turn around.
The S&P peaked Jan 27, but didn't hit -5% until Mar 18 — 35 trading days. Historical bear markets averaged 14.5 days. The slowest ever was 24 days (1968). This slow, hesitant decline reveals weak selling pressure, not the start of a collapse.
Source: Carson Investment Research, S&P 500 data (1950-2026), YCharts
"Every pullback in the last 3 years recovered within 3-6 months. Since 1974, the S&P 500 returns an average of +24% following a correction."
Source: Invesco US; Carson Investment Research
Bull continues → equity and gold rise. Thesis wrong → gold and balanced provide a floor.
All data from RHB eManager & fund factsheets. Returns as of Jan-Feb 2026. Based on RM50k.
Full RM50k deployed from Day 1 — parked in balanced fund while we switch to equity over 4 months.
Sales charges are a one-time cost. EPF's 5.5% ceiling repeats every year.
| EPF (5.5% div) | This Portfolio (~12%) | |
|---|---|---|
| Gross return Year 1 | +RM2,750 | +RM6,000 |
| Less: sales charge (one-time) | RM0 | -RM2,600 |
| Less: mgmt fee (annual) | RM0 | -RM780 |
| Net Year 1 | +RM2,750 | +RM2,620 |
| Net Year 2 | +RM5,500 | +RM8,840 |
| Net Year 3 | +RM8,250 | +RM15,060 |
Based on RM50k. Portfolio assumes conservative 12% blended return. EPF based on recent 5.5% dividend. Actual results will vary.
We don't panic-sell during dips. We use your Balanced Fund as ammunition — buying equity when it's cheap, and locking in profits when it bounces back. Every dip makes the war chest bigger.
When markets drop, equity funds fall harder than balanced funds (e.g. equity -20% vs balanced -10%). That gap is your opportunity. We move money FROM balanced (which fell less) INTO equity (which fell more). When equity bounces back — and it always bounces more — we take profits BACK to balanced. Each cycle, your war chest grows.
| Balanced | Equity | Gold | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starting position | RM30,000 | RM10,000 | RM10,000 | RM50,000 |
| After dip (Bal -10%, Eq -20%) | RM27,000 | RM8,000 | RM10,000 | RM45,000 |
| Your move: Switch RM5k Bal → Eq | RM22,000 | RM13,000 | RM10,000 | RM45,000 |
| Market fully recovers | RM24,444 | RM16,250 | RM10,000 | RM50,694 |
| Lock profits: Return to 60/20/20 | RM30,694 | RM10,000 | RM10,000 | RM50,694 |
Result: +RM694 profit from one dip-bounce cycle — even though the market only returned to where it started. Your war chest grew from RM30,000 to RM30,694. Next dip, you have more to deploy. Doing nothing = RM50,000. Your move = RM50,694.
If you sell during a dip, you'll almost certainly miss the bounce. The best days come right after the worst days.
Switching between funds on the same platform: no additional sales charge. Redemption: T+3 to T+7 business days. No lock-up. No exit fee. Your RM monitors and executes switches for you — you just approve.
Sources: Hartford Funds; JPMorgan Asset Management (20-year data); Fidelity Investments; Invesco US
Start small. Stay disciplined. Let the data guide you.
Next step: A 15-minute call to review the portfolio and get started.