Advisory Suite · Theme DecksOctober 2, 2026
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Investment Strategy Brief
🌱
☀️
🍂
❄️

The Market Has Seasons.
Your Portfolio Should Too.

A smarter way to invest: adjust your strategy as the market changes — not just "hold" or "sell"

Inspired by Stage Analysis & dynamic covered call research
Adapted for Malaysian unit trust investors • April 2026

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Most Investors Only Know Two Moves

When markets drop, people either freeze or panic. There's a smarter third option.

💤
Option A: Hold & Pray
Watch your portfolio drop -30% to -50%.
Sleepless nights. No plan.
Just hope it comes back.
😱
Option B: Panic Sell
Sell at -20%, feel relieved.
Market bounces +15% next month.
You missed it. Buy back higher.
VS
🌱
Option C: Invest With The Seasons
Read the market's "weather." Adjust automatically. Accelerate in bull markets. Harvest in bear markets. Your portfolio adapts — you sleep well.
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The Four Seasons of Investing

Professional traders use the 50-day and 200-day moving averages to read market "seasons." We apply the same logic — but with unit trusts instead of options.

🌱
Stage 1 — Spring (Recovery)

The Ice Is Melting

Signal: Price rises above 50-day MA, but 200-day MA still falling
Market bottomed out. Early signs of recovery. Start cautious DCA: park in Balanced Fund, begin small switches to Equity. Test the water, don't dive in.
☀️
Stage 2 — Summer (Bull Market)

Let The Sun Shine

Signal: Price > 50-day MA > 200-day MA (golden cross, full bull)
Everything is rising. Full equity allocation — 60%. Let it run. Don't sell too early. This is where the big gains come from. The current market is here.
🍂
Stage 3 — Autumn (Topping Out)

Harvest Before Winter

Signal: Price drops below 50-day MA, momentum weakening
The party is winding down. Switch equity profits back to Balanced Fund. Lock in gains. Reload your war chest. You'll need ammo for winter.
❄️
Stage 4 — Winter (Bear Market)

Buy While Others Are Freezing

Signal: Price < 50-day MA < 200-day MA (death cross, full bear)
Everyone is selling. Prices are cheap. Use your Balanced Fund war chest to buy discounted Equity. Balanced drops -10%, Equity drops -20% — you buy Equity with Balanced. When spring comes, your enlarged equity position bounces harder.
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How This Works With Your Unit Trust Portfolio

Wall Street uses options. We use the same logic with something simpler: switching between Balanced Fund and Equity Fund.

Season Market Signal Your Portfolio Action
🌱 Spring Price crosses above 50MA Start DCA: Balanced → Equity (cautious)
☀️ Summer Price > 50MA > 200MA Full equity (60%). Let it ride.
🍂 Autumn Price drops below 50MA Equity profits → Balanced (harvest)
❄️ Winter Price < 50MA < 200MA Balanced → cheap Equity (buy the dip)
The key insight: Your Balanced Fund is your "war chest." It drops less during downturns (-10% vs equity's -20%), so it preserves your buying power. When you switch from Balanced to cheap Equity during winter, and Equity bounces back harder in spring — you capture the spread. Each full cycle, your war chest grows.

Strategy concept adapted from Weinstein Stage Analysis & dynamic covered call research

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Your Portfolio: Built For All Seasons

Currently in Summer (Stage 2) — S&P 500 above both moving averages. Full equity target.

Equity 60%
Gold 20%
Balanced 20%
Equity Core — 50%US Market Exposure + Style Diversification
RHB US Focus Equity Fund
1Y: +14.05% • YTD: +12.72% • SC: 5.5%
30%
RM15,000
AHAM Select Balanced Fund
1Y: +7.9% • 3Y: +26.7% • SC: 5.5% • Your war chest
20%
RM10,000
Growth — 30%Tech + Value Balance
AHAM WS Next Gen Tech (USD)
1Y: +36.4% • 3Y: +85.7% • SC: 5.5%
20%
RM10,000
RHB US Value Fund
1Y: +9.47% • YTD: +7.08% • SC: 5.0%
10%
RM5,000
All-Weather Hedge — 20%Gold — works in every season
RHB Gold Fund
1Y: +27.59% • SC: 5.0% • MF: 1.0% • Physical gold
15%
RM7,500
RHB Gold and General Fund
1Y: +79.08% • SC: 5.5% • Mining leverage
5%
RM2,500

All data from RHB eManager & fund factsheets. Returns as of Jan-Feb 2026. Based on RM50k.

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The Cycle In Action

Your RM monitors the seasons and executes switches for you. Here's exactly what happens in each phase.

🌱
Spring: Enter Cautiously
Market is recovering from a bottom. Start deploying from war chest.
Balanced → Equity
RM5k-10k/month, test the water
☀️
Summer: Let It Run
Full bull market. Your equity is growing. Don't interrupt compounding.
Hold full 60% equity
Sit back, let it ride
🍂
Autumn: Harvest Gains
Momentum fading. Take equity profits back to safety before winter.
Equity profits → Balanced
Reload the war chest
❄️
Winter: Buy The Sale
Everything is cheap. Your war chest survived better than equity. Deploy it.
Balanced → Cheap Equity
Buy low with preserved capital

One Full Cycle: The Math (RM50k)

BalancedEquityGoldTotal
☀️ Summer (start) RM30,000 RM10,000 RM10,000 RM50,000
🍂 Autumn: harvest profits RM35,000 RM7,000 RM10,500 RM52,500
❄️ Winter: dip hits (Bal -10%, Eq -25%) RM31,500 RM5,250 RM11,000 RM47,750
❄️ Your move: RM8k Bal → Eq RM23,500 RM13,250 RM11,000 RM47,750
🌱 Spring: market recovers fully RM26,111 RM17,667 RM10,500 RM54,278
🌱 Reload: return to 60/20/20 RM33,778 RM10,000 RM10,500 RM54,278

Result after one full cycle: RM50,000 → RM54,278 (+8.6%)
Your war chest grew from RM30,000 to RM33,778. Market went down and came back to the same level — but your portfolio is UP because you bought cheap equity with preserved balanced capital. Each cycle compounds.

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Why This Works — The Data

This isn't theory. History proves that staying invested and buying dips beats panic-selling every single time.

The Original Research (SPY + Dynamic Covered Calls, backtested through 2008 & 2020)

Buy & Hold SPY
25.2x
Max drawdown: -54.7%
SPY + Four Seasons Strategy
97.8x
Max drawdown: -25.9%

Source: "教66歲阿媽投資" backtesting research using SPY + weekly covered calls with stage-based OTM adjustment

Why We Never Fully Sell — Panic-Selling Is The Most Expensive Mistake

50%
of returns lost if you miss
just 10 best trading days
over 30 years (Hartford Funds)
7 / 10
best trading days happened
within 2 weeks of the
worst days (JPMorgan, 20yr)
$71,750
$10k stayed invested 2005-24
vs $32,871 missing
10 best days (Fidelity)

How It Works In Practice

Your RM monitors the seasons. You don't need to watch the market daily. When the season changes, your RM contacts you with a specific recommendation: "Equity is entering autumn — I recommend switching RM5k of profits back to Balanced." You approve, we execute. Switching between funds: no additional sales charge. Redemption: T+3 to T+7 business days. No lock-up. No exit fee.

Sources: Hartford Funds; JPMorgan Asset Mgmt (20yr); Fidelity Investments; Stage Analysis: Stan Weinstein methodology

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The Bottom Line

Markets have seasons.
Most people only dress for summer.
We dress for all four.

Your portfolio doesn't just survive winter — it uses winter to grow stronger.

RM50k
Recommended start
Full four-season framework
RM monitors seasons for you
RM100k
Full allocation
Larger war chest = more
ammo for winter buying

Next step: A 15-minute call to set up your all-season portfolio.

Source: Stage Analysis (Weinstein), Hartford Funds, JPMorgan, Fidelity, RHB Fund Factsheets
This is for discussion purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal.