bear · weight 30%
7.5 – 10.0
Thermal coal prices slide below RMB 600/ton as domestic oversupply, record-high power-plant inventories, and accelerating renewable displacement converge; China records its first demand decline since 2022; 2026 EPS falls toward HKD 1.0 and dividend is trimmed, de-rating P/E toward 7x on falling earnings base
base · weight 50%
12.0 – 15.5
QHD prices stabilise at RMB 650-700/ton as government overproduction inspections cap supply and coal-chemical demand partially offsets power-sector weakness; cost controls hold gross margins steady; SOE dividend sustains 3-4% yield and 8x forward P/E anchors the floor near current price
bull · weight 20%
16.0 – 19.5
Cold-winter or industrial-recovery demand spike lifts coal prices to RMB 750+ and validates Morgan Stanley HKD 17.50 PT; coal-chemical capacity ramp adds incremental earnings; SOE re-rating theme narrows A/H premium and pushes P/E above 10x on upgraded 2026-27 forecasts
| Leaf | Next check | Last data | Source |
|---|
| QHD domestic spot price trend (5500 kcal) | None | None | None |
| Import competition from Russia, Mongolia and Australia | None | None | None |
| Power-plant inventory overhang suppressing offtake | None | None | None |
| Government overproduction inspection regime curbing supply | None | None | None |
| Unit mining cost control and gross margin stability | None | None | None |
| RMB 20B three-year CapEx ROIC delivery | None | None | None |
| Renewable capacity additions displacing thermal power generation | None | None | None |
| 15th Five-Year Plan peak-coal timing ambiguity | None | None | None |
| Coal chemicals as structural demand buffer offsetting power loss | None | None | None |
| Nine consecutive years of dividend payments | None | None | None |
| Net cash balance sheet with more cash than debt | None | None | None |
| China National Coal Group state-shareholder backing | None | None | None |
| Forward P/E of 7.66x versus historical sector average | None | None | None |
| Morgan Stanley Overweight upgrade with HKD 17.50 price target | None | None | None |
| A/H premium narrowing as H-share re-rates toward A-share | None | None | None |