bear · weight 20%
1.9 – 2.6
US BIS export controls expand to Malaysia-origin semiconductor equipment, gutting SEBU China revenues; SSBU ramp delayed beyond FY28; SMBU SGX listing aborted or priced below book, causing dilution without premium; global capex downturn shrinks equipment order book
base · weight 55%
3.8 – 4.35
FY26 management guidance of 15-20% revenue growth achieved; SEBU holds 30-40% market share in Mi Series; Johor SMBU Phase 1 plant (90,000 kk/month) commences 2H26; SSBU enters mass production end-2026; SGX listing provides moderate Accurus value unlock
bull · weight 25%
4.8 – 6.2
SSBU lands tier-1 EV or AI customer contract ahead of schedule; Accurus Taiwan SGX listing prices at 4-5x book unlocking major value for MI shareholders; CoWoS and advanced packaging solder ball demand surges beyond 2026 consensus; SEBU wins incremental Taiwan OSAT business
| Leaf | Impact | Duration | Signal | Kill condition |
|---|
| CoWoS and 2.5D/3D packaging solder ball demand surge | High | Structural | Active | Accurus loses a top-3 TSMC or OSAT customer, or solder ball ASP declines more than 20% year-on-year |
| Johor Phase 1 plant online 2H26 adding 90,000 kk/month capacity | High | Catalyst | Uncertain | Johor Phase 1 commercial start delayed beyond Q2 2027 |
| Proposed SGX listing of Accurus Taiwan as valuation unlock | Medium | Catalyst | Uncertain | SGX listing abandoned or priced below 3x book value, causing earnings dilution without shareholder premium |
| Accurus China turnaround on domestic advanced packaging ramp | Medium | Cyclical | Uncertain | US sanctions restrict Accurus China supply chain, or China segment revenue stays below 5% of SMBU for FY27 |
| Leaf | Next check | Last data | Source |
|---|
| Mi Series market share at 30-40% with structural moat | None | None | None |
| AI visual inspection and smart-factory automation upsell premium | None | None | None |
| Advanced packaging capex cycle — CoWoS, HBM, 2.5D/3D adoption | None | None | None |
| CoWoS and 2.5D/3D packaging solder ball demand surge | None | None | None |
| Johor Phase 1 plant online 2H26 adding 90,000 kk/month capacity | None | None | None |
| Proposed SGX listing of Accurus Taiwan as valuation unlock | None | None | None |
| Accurus China turnaround on domestic advanced packaging ramp | None | None | None |
| WBG power module mass production by end-2026 from Hangzhou facility | None | None | None |
| EV charging and industrial WBG customer pipeline conversion | None | None | None |
| US BIS entity-list or licensing expansion to Malaysia semiconductor equipment | None | None | None |
| Malaysia transshipment-hub scrutiny — compliance and reputational exposure | None | None | None |
| US 24% tariff on Malaysian electronics reducing SEBU addressable market | None | None | None |
| 35x PE near 52-week high — re-rating risk on any EPS miss | None | None | None |
| May 14 2026 earnings as imminent binary catalyst | None | None | None |
| FX translation exposure — TWD and USD earnings converted to MYR | None | None | None |