| Leaf | Impact | Duration | Signal | Kill condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI Overviews Ad Monetization Expanding | High | Structural | Active | Ads appear in fewer than 15% of AI Overview SERPs or Search revenue growth drops below 8% YoY for two consecutive quarters |
| Search Query Volumes at All-Time High | High | Cyclical | Active | Monthly active Search users decline 5%+ in any Tier-1 geography or AI Mode cannibalises more than 20% of monetisable intent queries |
| YouTube Advertising Growth | Medium | Cyclical | Active | YouTube ad revenue growth falls below 5% YoY for two consecutive quarters or TikTok and Reels collectively capture above 40% of video ad spend budgets |
| Leaf | Impact | Duration | Signal | Kill condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GCP Hypergrowth at 63% Outpacing Hyperscaler Peers | High | Structural | Active | GCP quarterly revenue growth decelerates below 30% YoY or cloud operating margin falls below 12% for two consecutive quarters |
| $460 Billion Backlog Conversion Pipeline | High | Structural | Active | Cloud backlog growth rate turns negative quarter-on-quarter or top-20 enterprise account churn exceeds 10% in any rolling 12-month period |
| AI Inference Workload Capture vs AWS and Azure | Medium | Structural | Active | AWS or Azure win more than 60% of net-new AI training and inference contracts per independent industry survey data |
| Leaf | Impact | Duration | Signal | Kill condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Android 3 Billion Device Distribution Advantage | High | Structural | Active | Apple Intelligence plus ChatGPT integration captures more than 30% of global mobile AI assistant queries away from Gemini within 18 months |
| Gemini Web Traffic Share Surging from 5% to 21% | Medium | Cyclical | Active | Gemini web traffic share stops growing or falls below 15% while ChatGPT stabilises above 70% share for two consecutive months |
| Google Workspace Gemini Enterprise Monetisation | Medium | Structural | Uncertain | Gemini Workspace paid attach rate stays below 15% of total enterprise seats after 12 months of broad commercial availability |
| Leaf | Impact | Duration | Signal | Kill condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOJ Search Antitrust DC Circuit Appeal 2026-2027 | High | Catalyst | Uncertain | DC Circuit Court mandates Chrome divestiture or bans exclusive default-search distribution agreements worth more than $20 billion in annual revenue impact |
| Ad Tech Structural Remedies Virginia Case Pending | Medium | Catalyst | Uncertain | Court orders AdX or DFP divestiture reducing Google ad tech operating income by more than $8 billion annually on a standalone basis |
| Choice Screen Revenue Dilution Post-Mehta Ruling | Low | Structural | Active | Google default search market share falls below 80% in the United States within 18 months of mandatory choice screen rollout |
| Leaf | Impact | Duration | Signal | Kill condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $185 Billion 2026 AI Infrastructure Commitment | High | Cyclical | Active | Annual CapEx exceeds $200 billion without corresponding Cloud or AI revenue acceleration, or group free cash flow yield drops below 2% of market cap |
| Operating Leverage: Net Income up 81% YoY in Q1 | Medium | Cyclical | Active | Group operating margin contracts more than 400 basis points YoY for two consecutive quarters despite revenue growth remaining above 15% |
| Leaf | Next check | Last data | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI Overviews Ad Monetization Expanding | None | None | None |
| Search Query Volumes at All-Time High | None | None | None |
| YouTube Advertising Growth | None | None | None |
| GCP Hypergrowth at 63% Outpacing Hyperscaler Peers | None | None | None |
| $460 Billion Backlog Conversion Pipeline | None | None | None |
| AI Inference Workload Capture vs AWS and Azure | None | None | None |
| Android 3 Billion Device Distribution Advantage | None | None | None |
| Gemini Web Traffic Share Surging from 5% to 21% | None | None | None |
| Google Workspace Gemini Enterprise Monetisation | None | None | None |
| DOJ Search Antitrust DC Circuit Appeal 2026-2027 | None | None | None |
| Ad Tech Structural Remedies Virginia Case Pending | None | None | None |
| Choice Screen Revenue Dilution Post-Mehta Ruling | None | None | None |
| $185 Billion 2026 AI Infrastructure Commitment | None | None | None |
| Operating Leverage: Net Income up 81% YoY in Q1 | None | None | None |
claude-sonnet-4-6 as judge
· models agreed on all fields